Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:24:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6C 0x6c5c…91fc sports 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$480 (+11%) realized +$444 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%20W / 14L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$950
other 26% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +27.8% +15.6% 59% 59% +10.0%
≤30d 34 +27.8% +15.6% 59% 59% +10.0%
≤90d 34 +27.8% +15.6% 59% 59% +10.0%
all 34 +27.8% +15.6% 59% 59% +10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.6% 59% +10.0%
10% ← realistic here +4.5% 59% -0.5%
15% -5.6% 59% -10.2%
20% -14.8% 56% -19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +48% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$103 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized+$444
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses20 / 14
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage2d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Zeynep Sonmez 59¢ 100¢ $120 $204 +$84 (+70%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Aleksandar Kovacevic 51¢ 28¢ $95 $51 −$44 (-47%)
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Luciano Darderi 38¢ 36¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 23 $172 +$121 +70%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $51 +$100 +195%
Targu Mures: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 23 $51 +$153 +298%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges Jun 23 $111 +$64 +57%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey Jun 23 $78 +$69 +88%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 23 $152 +$100 +66%
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 23 $49 +$103 +209%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $197 +$108 +55%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 23 $47 +$34 +73%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $170 +$153 +90%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $52 +$89 +169%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez Jun 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 22 $151 −$81 -54%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $76 −$76 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh Jun 22 $150 +$178 +119%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $85 +$79 +93%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Lautaro Midon Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $71 −$71 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jay Clarke vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 22 $66 +$94 +142%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding Jun 22 $186 +$121 +65%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin Jun 22 $71 +$121 +169%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $197 +$136 +69%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer Jun 22 $212 +$84 +40%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $169 +$100 +60%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $152 −$152 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $172 +$297 +172%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $127 −$127 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 21 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $458 −$458 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Luciano Darderi 38¢ $51 17m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery SELL Roman Andres Burruchaga 72¢ $151 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 59¢ $121 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 24¢ $51 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 51¢ $96 1h
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 58¢ $172 2h
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 86¢ $204 2h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges SELL Nuno Borges 97¢ $175 3h
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 21¢ $51 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey SELL Giles Hussey 95¢ $147 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey BUY Giles Hussey 50¢ $66 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey BUY Giles Hussey 47¢ $2 4h
Targu Mures: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 28¢ $51 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey BUY Giles Hussey 48¢ $10 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic BUY Jenson Brooksby 60¢ $152 5h
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas SELL Eero Vasa 79¢ $152 6h
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Eero Vasa 25¢ $49 7h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges BUY Nuno Borges 61¢ $111 10h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 33¢ $31 15h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $47 15h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 96¢ $141 16h
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 52¢ $170 18h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 28¢ $69 18h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 59¢ $151 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $197 20h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $52 20h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Alex Hernandez 41¢ $66 21h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $76 22h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al BUY Felipe Meligeni Alves 38¢ $51 22h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Vilius Gaubas 45¢ $150 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.47 · official $301.47 (match) · 74 history records