Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:55:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c59…d892 crypto 527 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,042 (-7%) realized −$12,042 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%171W / 356L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day40.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$41,862
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-45.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -21.7% -29.2% 46% 41% -14.7%
≤30d 131 -44.2% -49.5% 33% 27% -30.9%
≤90d 527 -39.6% -45.4% 32% 28% -36.0%
all 527 -39.6% -45.4% 32% 28% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.4% 28% -36.0%
10% ← realistic here -50.6% 25% -42.2%
15% -55.4% 21% -47.8%
20% -59.8% 16% -52.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$192 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,042
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses171 / 356
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)527 / 527
History coverage42d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day40.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 527 Trades
no open positions (190 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $1,149 −$113 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 29 $1,600 −$51 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 29 $632 −$112 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $523 +$112 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $928 +$748 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $1,036 −$672 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $358 −$170 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $494 −$368 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $1,281 +$371 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $412 −$225 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $303 +$332 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $617 −$588 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $157 +$74 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $507 +$108 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $677 +$92 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $577 −$214 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $401 +$211 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $309 −$246 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $546 +$126 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $942 −$43 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $576 +$192 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 29 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 29 $207 −$126 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $104 −$79 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 28 $315 +$242 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 28 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 28 $103 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $258 +$80 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 28 $243 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $205 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $350 −$29 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $22 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $310 −$253 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $236 +$55 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $618 −$577 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $371 +$93 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $221 +$70 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $912 +$236 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $591 −$70 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $108 −$78 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $103 +$21 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,794 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $176 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $159 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $159 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $169 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $663 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,438 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1,013 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $111 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $52 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $514 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $806 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $13 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $21 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $85 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $513 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $16 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $507 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $98 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $829 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $319 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1,035 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $188 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $205 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1906 history records