trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 29 | -1.8% | -11.2% | 21% | 0% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.2% | 0% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -19.7% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -27.4% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -34.6% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $218 | $218 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $159 | $158 | −$0 (-0%) |
| 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | Yes | 5¢ | 4¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-28%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 22 | $198 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 22 | $209 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 22 | $388 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 22 | $199 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 21 | $229 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 21 | $180 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 02 | $94 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 02 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jan 26 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Australian Open? | Jan 26 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Australian Open? | Jan 26 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jan 23 | $30 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Australian Open? | Jan 22 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 20 | $300 | +$1 | +0% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 20 | $198 | $0 | +0% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Jan 19 | $15 | −$8 | -54% |
| Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jan 19 | $412 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jan 16 | $300 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jan 16 | $120 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jan 16 | $72 | $0 | -0% |
| US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? | Jan 15 | $489 | +$3 | +1% |
| Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Jan 14 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Jan 14 | $477 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Jan 13 | $490 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 12 | $491 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jan 09 | $491 | $0 | -0% |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | Jan 09 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | Dec 25 | $19 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 31 | $49 | $0 | -0% |