Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:43:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6C 0x6c4f…affa crypto 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$169 (-8%) realized −$144 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate62%93W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$33
14 days−$188
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$186
world 24% +$10
other 3% −$17
sports 1% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 28% -29.4%
≤30d 149 -12.5% -20.8% 62% 41% -17.3%
≤90d 149 -12.5% -20.8% 62% 41% -17.3%
all 149 -12.5% -20.8% 62% 41% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 41% -17.3%
10% -28.4% 24% -25.2%
15% -35.3% 15% -32.5%
20% -41.6% 8% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$144
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses93 / 56
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)149 / 164
History coverage19d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 89¢ 89¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $13 $8 −$4 (-34%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 86¢ 68¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 82¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 93¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 85¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 74¢ 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 73¢ 9¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 72¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 57¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $12 −$7 -57%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +306%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +22%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -92%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$10 +93%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +249%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $4 $0 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$5 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $4 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 98¢ $3 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $1 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $8 23h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 26h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.46 · official $35.46 (match) · 404 history records