trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 38% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 38% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 38% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 20 | -1.6% | -11.0% | 55% | 10% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.0% | 10% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -19.5% | 5% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -27.3% | 5% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -34.4% | 5% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 81¢ | 81¢ | $31 | $31 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 14 | $42 | +$1 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 13 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $38 | +$1 | +1% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 10 | $18 | −$1 | -4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | Jun 09 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 08 | $32 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? | Jun 27 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Apr 20 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Sue Bird make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F | Mar 20 | $1 | $0 | +13% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? | Mar 19 | $1 | $0 | -49% |
| Florida vs. Alabama | Mar 04 | $11 | −$2 | -17% |
| Kansas State vs. Cincinnati | Mar 04 | $9 | −$6 | -70% |
| San Diego State vs. UNLV | Mar 04 | $20 | −$1 | -7% |
| UMBC vs. UMass Lowell | Mar 04 | $10 | +$10 | +92% |