Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6C 0x6c47…bcb4 crypto 356 markets active 1h ago coverage 579d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19,340 (+2%) realized +$19,199 · open +$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate66%231W / 119L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$2,329per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,498now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$730
7 days−$1,019
14 days−$969
30 days−$10,579
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$14,445
world 6% +$1,772
other 6% +$2,558
finance 3% +$2,921
economics 2% −$141
politics 1% −$888
sports 1% −$1,834
tech 0% +$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -11.7% -20.1% 67% 33% -12.8%
≤30d 72 -63.2% -66.7% 26% 11% -22.6%
≤90d 194 -8.2% -17.0% 66% 43% -10.5%
all 350 -1.5% -10.9% 66% 43% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 43% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 28% -16.3%
15% -27.2% 17% -24.4%
20% -34.3% 11% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$1,978) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$405 vs −$640 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

579d coverage
Net worth$2,498
Realized+$19,199
Unrealized+$141
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses231 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)350 / 356
History coverage579d
Avg bet$2,329
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan India 87¢ 92¢ $2,358 $2,498 +$141 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? Jun 16 $176 −$176 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,060 +$940 +23%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2,152 +$48 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,296 +$170 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $162 +$38 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $251 +$49 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,420 −$1,650 -48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7,550 +$450 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $1,840 +$158 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $4,504 −$784 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $711 −$221 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $390 +$55 +14%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $336 +$24 +7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $771 +$29 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $9,950 +$50 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $5,206 +$2,951 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 02 $102 +$27 +26%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $2,445 −$11 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 01 $500 +$20 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,886 +$591 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $747 +$70 +9%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $630 −$40 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $4,931 +$289 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 23 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 23 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1PM ET May 23 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 23 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 23 $140 −$140 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 13? May 23 $160 −$160 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 5? May 23 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 23 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 20? May 23 $179 −$179 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 23 $121 −$121 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 82¢ $104 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 82¢ $20 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 82¢ $122 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 86¢ $430 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $880 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 89¢ $805 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 98¢ $42 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 98¢ $59 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 98¢ $118 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 98¢ $113 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 98¢ $431 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 98¢ $292 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 98¢ $21 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 98¢ $391 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 98¢ $101 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 98¢ $95 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 98¢ $21 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 98¢ $125 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 98¢ $136 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 98¢ $42 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $577 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,023 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $69 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,498.43 · official $2,498.43 (match) · 3103 history records