Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:18:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c46…249a crypto 210 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$119 (-4%) realized −$315 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate50%105W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$119
14 days−$119
30 days−$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$309
sports 6% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -44.9% -50.2% 30% 16% -27.9%
≤30d 108 -31.8% -38.3% 38% 23% -24.6%
≤90d 208 -16.8% -24.7% 50% 35% -19.1%
all 208 -16.8% -24.7% 50% 35% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 35% -19.1%
10% -31.9% 16% -26.8%
15% -38.5% 7% -33.9%
20% -44.5% 5% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$315
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses105 / 103
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)208 / 210
History coverage76d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Up 72¢ 100¢ $23 $32 +$9 (+38%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Down 67¢ 46¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-31%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Up 35¢ 54¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+53%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $29 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $29 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $28 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$12 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$7 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$23 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $27 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$37 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $28 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$6 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1AM ET May 27 $34 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12AM ET May 27 $38 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1PM ET May 26 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12PM ET May 26 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11AM ET May 26 $31 −$6 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4AM ET May 26 $9 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3AM ET May 26 $12 −$5 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.43 · official $39.99 (match) · 1073 history records