Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:28:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6C 0x6c46…781d crypto 913 markets active 19h ago coverage 137d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 137d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,107 (-5%) realized −$5,107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate66%600W / 314L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,595
7 days−$2,382
14 days−$2,382
30 days−$2,382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,216
world 0% +$4
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -2.3% -11.6% 92% 4% -13.5%
≤30d 116 -2.3% -11.6% 92% 4% -13.5%
≤90d 256 -4.8% -13.9% 79% 23% -12.5%
all 914 -8.9% -17.6% 66% 31% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 31% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 16% -21.5%
15% -32.7% 8% -29.1%
20% -39.3% 5% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$28 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses600 / 314
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)914 / 913
History coverage137d ⚠
Avg bet$109
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 914 Trades
no open positions (122 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grok 4.20 released by April 20? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $44 −$29 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $551 −$514 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $549 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $536 +$15 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $367 +$63 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $439 +$34 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $433 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $423 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $401 +$22 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $390 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $375 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $375 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $343 +$32 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $338 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $298 +$43 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $283 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $267 +$16 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $261 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9PM ET Jun 25 $260 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $259 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $251 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $241 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $225 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $204 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $195 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $186 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $183 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $190 −$6 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $179 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $162 +$17 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $161 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $156 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $151 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $1,185 −$1,185 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $1,172 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $1,161 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $1,150 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $1,134 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $1,123 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $1,108 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $1,097 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $1,080 +$16 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $1,071 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $1,061 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $13 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $12 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $13 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $36 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $13 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $24 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $551 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $418 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $14 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $100 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $549 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $536 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $430 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $367 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $439 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $433 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $423 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $422 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $401 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $390 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records