Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:58:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c45…8385 crypto 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$36 (-13%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate70%78W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$23
sports 28% −$57
other 3% +$1
tech 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +61.3% +45.9% 89% 67% +59.4%
≤30d 9 +61.3% +45.9% 89% 67% +59.4%
≤90d 50 -24.3% -31.5% 58% 18% -5.0%
all 112 -6.1% -15.0% 70% 30% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 30% -20.7%
10% -23.2% 21% -28.3%
15% -30.6% 18% -35.2%
20% -37.4% 10% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses78 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage141d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 28 $1 +$1 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 28 $6 +$25 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 28 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Butler Bulldogs vs. Georgetown Hoyas May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Mavericks May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Varvara Gracheva vs Rebecca Sram May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Hornets May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 12 $2 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 12 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 12 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 10 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 47d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 286 history records