Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6C 0x6c3f…6cc2 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$6 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day53.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$2
other 36% $0
sports 9% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 42% -1.1%
≤30d 12 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 42% -1.1%
≤90d 12 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 42% -1.1%
all 12 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 42% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 42% -1.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 25% -10.6%
15% -26.7% 17% -19.2%
20% -33.9% 8% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day53.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$5 +36%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $12 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -45%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 $0 +24%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 -24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 44m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 49m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 61¢ $6 49m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 52m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 57m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 57m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 59m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 59m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 59m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $7 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records