Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:12:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c3f…e6a2 sports 391 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2081 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$1,609 (-15%) realized −$1,922 · open +$313
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%134W / 173L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2081.0pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2,892now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$316
other 34% +$2,196
crypto 1% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2081 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+48.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 307 +64.0% +48.4% 44% 37% -2.6%
≤30d 307 +64.0% +48.4% 44% 37% -2.6%
≤90d 307 +64.0% +48.4% 44% 37% -2.6%
all 307 +64.0% +48.4% 44% 37% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2081.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +48.4% 37% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here +34.2% 31% -11.9%
15% +21.2% 24% -20.4%
20% +9.3% 20% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +64% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +151% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$16 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,892
Realized−$1,922
Unrealized+$313
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses134 / 173
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions92
Markets (closed)307 / 391
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2081.0
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 92 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska Maja Chwalinska 57¢ 86¢ $587 $890 +$303 (+52%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? No 98¢ 98¢ $280 $283 +$3 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? No 55¢ 56¢ $208 $209 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? No 93¢ 94¢ $172 $174 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Japan 69¢ 69¢ $164 $165 +$1 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 42¢ 42¢ $122 $123 +$1 (+1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka Naomi Osaka 87¢ 84¢ $99 $96 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 46¢ 46¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Learner Tien 92¢ 96¢ $63 $66 +$3 (+4%)
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Martin Damm 74¢ 88¢ $56 $66 +$10 (+18%)
Spread: Mexico (-4.5) Ecuador 98¢ 99¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? No 98¢ 99¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta Denis Shapovalov 69¢ 56¢ $51 $42 −$10 (-19%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? No 96¢ 97¢ $38 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Ignacio Buse 60¢ 70¢ $24 $28 +$4 (+17%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? No 97¢ 99¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Germany leading at halftime? No 45¢ 46¢ $22 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Max Basing Shintaro Mochizuki 68¢ 88¢ $17 $22 +$5 (+29%)
Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Under 97¢ 97¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? No 73¢ 74¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Vukic vs Jenson Brooksby Jenson Brooksby 74¢ 92¢ $14 $18 +$3 (+24%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Sweden 43¢ 44¢ $15 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 55¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 72¢ 74¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Rafael Jodar 89¢ 96¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 29 $3 +$47 +1709%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 29 $58 +$2 +4%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 29 $36 +$19 +53%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 29 $41 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $68 +$19 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 Jun 29 $99 −$42 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-1.5) Jun 29 $32 −$17 -54%
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 29 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $40 +$16 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $20 −$4 -22%
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $35 $0 -1%
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $66 +$9 +14%
Spread: Goiás EC (-1.5) Jun 29 $5 $0 +11%
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $47 −$26 -54%
Spread: Goiás EC (-2.5) Jun 29 $15 $0 +3%
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $12 +$3 +28%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $120 −$50 -42%
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: Draw at halftime? Jun 29 $2 +$3 +112%
Will Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife end in a draw? Jun 29 $7 +$3 +34%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $64 +$11 +18%
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $19 +$1 +7%
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $4 +$1 +17%
Spread: SC Recife (-2.5) Jun 29 $49 +$1 +2%
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $95 −$85 -90%
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $9 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 59¢ $2 2m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 59¢ $1 3m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 59¢ $3 3m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 59¢ $3 3m
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Pablo Carreno Busta 44¢ $2 3m
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Emilio Nava 28¢ $0 4m
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Emilio Nava 28¢ $1 4m
Wimbledon WTA: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva BUY Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 3¢ $0 4m
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Darja Vidmanova BUY Jessica Pegula 96¢ $5 5m
Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Luca Van Assche 4¢ $0 5m
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Denis Shapovalov 58¢ $3 6m
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 38¢ $1 6m
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Marco Trungelliti 15¢ $1 6m
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 38¢ $1 6m
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 38¢ $2 6m
Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Luca Van Assche 5¢ $0 8m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 42¢ $2 8m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 42¢ $2 8m
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Pablo Carreno Busta 44¢ $2 8m
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Vukic vs Jenson Brooksby BUY Jenson Brooksby 74¢ $3 9m
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Vukic vs Jenson Brooksby BUY Jenson Brooksby 74¢ $4 9m
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Vukic vs Jenson Brooksby BUY Jenson Brooksby 73¢ $4 10m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 55¢ $3 10m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 49¢ $2 11m
Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 90¢ $5 12m
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 74¢ $4 12m
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Pablo Carreno Busta 45¢ $2 13m
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Vukic vs Jenson Brooksby BUY Aleksandar Vukic 24¢ $1 13m
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Vukic vs Jenson Brooksby BUY Jenson Brooksby 75¢ $4 14m
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $4 15m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,891.93 · official $2,898.72 (match) · 3500 history records