Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c37…d40f other 466 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d only
✗ bot/MM pace (183 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$2,163 (+61%) realized +$2,134 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%140W / 90L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day182.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,531now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$261
14 days+$367
30 days+$391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$222
tech 24% +$70
politics 15% +$65
world 12% +$34
economics 5% +$5
crypto 4% +$17
culture 1% +$8
finance 1% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (183 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 +31.0% +18.5% 65% 50% +4.4%
≤30d 230 +31.1% +18.7% 61% 47% +3.1%
≤90d 230 +31.1% +18.7% 61% 47% +3.1%
all 230 +31.1% +18.7% 61% 47% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover182.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.7% 47% +3.1%
10% ← realistic here +7.3% 37% -6.8%
15% -3.1% 30% -15.8%
20% -12.6% 22% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.91 per $1 lost it wins $3.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$1,531
Realized+$2,134
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses140 / 90
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions500
Markets (closed)230 / 466
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day182.9
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 500 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22? Yes 2¢ 67¢ $2 $67 +$65 (+3267%)
Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026? Yes 2¢ 49¢ $2 $49 +$47 (+2219%)
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 8¢ 40¢ $8 $40 +$32 (+399%)
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 2¢ 37¢ $1 $25 +$24 (+1747%)
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 4¢ 22¢ $4 $22 +$18 (+462%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC or Bytedance? Yes 5¢ 18¢ $5 $18 +$13 (+270%)
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026? Yes 6¢ 15¢ $6 $15 +$9 (+171%)
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 6¢ 15¢ $6 $15 +$9 (+167%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+50%)
Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 12¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+139%)
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 11¢ $4 $11 +$7 (+150%)
Will the Republicans win the Oregon Senate race in 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-15%)
Anduril IPO before 2027? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+31%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No 4¢ 10¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+150%)
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $700 by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 11¢ $5 $10 +$4 (+83%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+6%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+19%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 29 $11 +$7 +61%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 29 $1 $0 +6%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 29 $62 +$6 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 29 $8 +$3 +38%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Jun 29 $0 $0 -67%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 29 $81 +$1 +1%
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 29 $10 −$2 -22%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 29 $125 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 29 $45 +$3 +6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 29 $52 +$1 +2%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 29 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $17 +$5 +27%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 29 $86 −$2 -2%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 29 $2 +$1 +50%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 29 $93 +$5 +5%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 28 $13 −$2 -13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 28 $185 −$4 -2%
No one announced as next James Bond? Jun 28 $13 +$7 +58%
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $7 +$10 +137%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $3 +$2 +53%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $2 +$2 +102%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 28 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $4 +$3 +59%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 28 $16 −$2 -14%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 28 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 28 $2 $0 +18%
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? Jun 28 $1 $0 +20%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 28 $36 −$3 -7%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 28 $41 +$2 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 28 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 28 $2 +$1 +29%
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Jun 28 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 28 $77 +$2 +3%
Alix Earle and Tom Brady confirmed relationship by June 30? Jun 28 $0 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Jun 27 $3 +$1 +28%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 27 $25 +$13 +50%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? Jun 27 $8 $0 -2%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 27 $3 +$2 +78%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 27 $19 $0 -2%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 27 $12 +$3 +22%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Jun 27 $18 −$8 -43%
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $0 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? Jun 27 $2 +$1 +44%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2m
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 6h
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
James Norton announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 8h
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 8h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 9h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 10h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 10h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 10h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 10h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 10h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,530.75 · official $1,553.41 · 3500 history records