Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

6C 0x6c34…5fa1 crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$51 (+28%) realized +$51 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +87% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip

Net edge+44%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%8W / 13L

Drawdown62%max

Avg bet$9per market

Trades / day30.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)+69.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+87.3%	+69.4%	38%	38%	+16.3%
≤30d	21	+87.3%	+69.4%	38%	38%	+16.3%
≤90d	21	+87.3%	+69.4%	38%	38%	+16.3%
all	21	+87.3%	+69.4%	38%	38%	+16.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover30.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+69.4%	38%	+16.3%
10% ← realistic here	+53.2%	38%	+5.2%
15%	+38.4%	38%	-5.0%
20%	+24.8%	38%	-14.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +87% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +189% → late -5% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18 vs −$8 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.4 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$51

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses8 / 13

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage1d

Avg bet$9

Trades / day30.0

Drawdown62%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$20	+$19	+93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Jun 15	$31	−$30	-97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Jun 15	$12	−$10	-86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Jun 15	$4	−$4	-94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$10	+195%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$10	+$12	+119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Jun 15	$13	−$12	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Jun 15	$6	−$6	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$13	+240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Jun 15	$11	−$10	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Jun 15	$2	+$44	+2061%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Jun 15	$7	−$7	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$6	+114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$7	+140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Jun 15	$4	−$1	-33%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff	Jun 14	$19	+$32	+165%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$5	38m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$39	39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$31	43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$1	45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	SELL Down	3¢	$1	46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$11	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$2	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$2	53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$5	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	BUY Down	22¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	SELL Down	83¢	$46	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	SELL Up	30¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$4	2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5	BUY Over	45¢	$10	3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$20	3h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff	BUY FUT Esports	37¢	$19	13h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London	BUY Team Heretics	29¢	$2	14h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records