Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:53:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c30…fa9c crypto 135 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$37 (-1%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate72%97W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$14
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -4.6% -13.7% 63% 18% -10.5%
≤30d 135 +1.0% -8.6% 72% 47% -10.5%
≤90d 135 +1.0% -8.6% 72% 47% -10.5%
all 135 +1.0% -8.6% 72% 47% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 47% -10.5%
10% -17.3% 31% -19.0%
15% -25.3% 19% -26.9%
20% -32.6% 15% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses97 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)135 / 135
History coverage20d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 135 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $203 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 24 $101 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 24 $254 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $153 −$10 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 24 $155 +$18 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $153 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 24 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $123 +$22 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 24 $40 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $62 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 24 $61 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $61 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $41 −$15 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $61 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 24 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $82 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $73 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $49 −$24 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $103 −$33 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $51 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $51 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $52 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $45 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $53 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $50 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $51 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $50 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $50 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $52 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $55 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $50 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $51 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $38 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $81 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $58 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 326 history records