Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:07:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6C 0x6c2e…c773 other 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-3%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%36W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$84
14 days+$84
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$1
other 32% +$5
sports 28% +$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -14.2% -22.4% 46% 46% +1.1%
≤30d 28 -14.2% -22.4% 46% 46% +1.1%
≤90d 28 -14.2% -22.4% 46% 46% +1.1%
all 79 -12.6% -20.9% 46% 42% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 42% -9.2%
10% -28.5% 34% -17.9%
15% -35.4% 30% -25.8%
20% -41.7% 20% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses36 / 43
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 79
History coverage166d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $5 −$2 -42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 +$11 +105%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $152 +$49 +32%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $72 +$9 +13%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$46 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $54 +$38 +70%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 +$10 +197%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $50 −$45 -90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$11 +36%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$15 -76%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $22 −$21 -98%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $20 +$15 +74%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$23 +45%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$22 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 +$9 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +43%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $24 +$12 +48%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 12? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -67%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-31? Jan 30 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01? Jan 30 $20 $0 -2%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-31? Jan 30 $20 $0 -1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 30 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-01-29? Jan 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 1PM ET Jan 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Jan 25 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Team Liquid PH win the M7 World Championship? Jan 25 $15 +$6 +41%
Will ONIC win the M7 World Championship? Jan 22 $14 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - January 19, 5AM ET Jan 19 $56 −$27 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 5AM ET Jan 19 $28 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 5AM ET Jan 19 $18 +$11 +60%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 19 $11 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 4AM ET Jan 19 $236 −$46 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 4AM ET Jan 19 $20 −$15 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 3AM ET Jan 19 $55 +$13 +24%
Solana Up or Down on January 19? Jan 19 $2 −$2 -87%
Solana Up or Down - January 18, 9PM ET Jan 19 $41 +$4 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 16¢ $3 15m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 26¢ $5 19m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 20m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 32m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $201 32m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $81 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $82 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $72 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $71 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 9h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $5 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 7¢ $5 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $54 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $30 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 79¢ $20 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 27h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 2¢ $0 27h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 22¢ $5 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 86¢ $22 30h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 14¢ $4 30h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 21¢ $0 30h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $20 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $20 32h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $9 33h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 34h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $20 34h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 34h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 195 history records