Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:32:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c2d…dd1e sports 395 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8,190 (+5%) realized +$8,190 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate85%334W / 60L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$439per market
Trades / day84.2pace
Fees−$1,276est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$871
other 8% +$190
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -0.7% -10.2% 89% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 300 +0.7% -8.9% 88% 2% -8.6%
≤90d 394 +1.1% -8.5% 85% 2% -9.0%
all 394 +1.1% -8.5% 85% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 2% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 1% -17.7%
15% -25.3% 1% -25.6%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$559) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$25 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$8,190
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses334 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$1,276
Open positions1
Markets (closed)394 / 395
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$439
Trades / day84.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 394 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $114 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $643 +$6 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,918 −$2 -0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $277 +$3 +1%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $495 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1,495 +$14 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $493 +$5 +1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $326 +$2 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $164 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $488 +$9 +2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $488 −$3 -1%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $88 +$1 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $163 +$2 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 18 $90 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $303 +$10 +3%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $90 +$1 +1%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 15 $275 +$3 +1%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 15 $313 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $93 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $549 +$2 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 15 $50 +$1 +1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 15 $124 +$1 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $216 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $253 −$3 -1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $863 +$16 +2%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $788 −$2 -0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $495 +$5 +1%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $87 +$1 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 14 $83 +$3 +3%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $297 +$3 +1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 14 $693 +$6 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $142 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $495 +$4 +1%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $19 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $297 +$3 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 9z (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 14 $47 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,230 +$18 +2%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 14 $38 $0 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 14 $108 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,141 +$22 +2%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 14 $184 +$2 +1%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $203 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $488 +$12 +2%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 14 $147 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 46¢ $21 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 46¢ $23 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 46¢ $23 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 46¢ $29 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 46¢ $5 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 46¢ $14 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 45¢ $114 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 14¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 11¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 39¢ $39 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 12¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 12¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 32¢ $63 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 1¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 1¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 87¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 87¢ $338 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 87¢ $86 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 86¢ $182 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 86¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 86¢ $63 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 86¢ $157 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 41¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 41¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 41¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 36¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 36¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 79¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 62¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 64¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.43 · official $9.43 (match) · 3500 history records