Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:11:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6C 0x6c2c…88c6 sports 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$181 (+10%) realized +$179 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%42W / 23L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$191
7 days+$369
14 days+$388
30 days+$388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$301
other 37% +$130
crypto 2% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +44.7% +31.0% 76% 76% +26.0%
≤30d 65 +24.8% +12.9% 65% 65% +14.3%
≤90d 65 +24.8% +12.9% 65% 65% +14.3%
all 65 +24.8% +12.9% 65% 65% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.9% 65% +14.3%
10% +2.1% 65% +3.4%
15% -7.8% 62% -6.6%
20% -16.8% 49% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$19 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$179
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses42 / 23
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions8
Markets (closed)65 / 79
History coverage9d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 65¢ 66¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 65¢ 60¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+69%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Yes 38¢ 40¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$25 +124%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $15 +$14 +90%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 +$15 +73%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 +$14 +93%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$14 +35%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $15 +$7 +48%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $10 +$49 +474%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$7 +48%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $36 +$34 +97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $15 +$10 +67%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 +$7 +32%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $30 +$13 +42%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $15 +$11 +73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$13 +44%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $36 +$33 +94%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 21 $20 +$9 +44%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 +$26 +73%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$24 +96%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden Jun 20 $35 +$28 +79%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $30 +$14 +46%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $25 +$13 +50%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $15 +$12 +79%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$11 +55%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$16 +106%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$5 -51%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND United States v Jun 19 $15 +$30 +194%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$22 +141%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$18 -91%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$12 +60%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $10 +$10 +103%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$11 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $15 +$17 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 +$34 +219%
Agustín Canobbio: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$20 +99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $20 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 67¢ $50 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 65¢ $25 2h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY 45¢ $25 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $20 11h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 12h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $10 15h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $36 15h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 25h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $15 25h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY 73¢ $40 25h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 30¢ $10 25h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $15 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $20 26h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $15 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 26h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $30 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 36h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL 99¢ $44 37h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL 99¢ $69 37h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $15 43h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 65¢ $40 44h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 59¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 68¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 50¢ $36 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 69¢ $20 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 57¢ $35 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.15 · official $182.13 · 131 history records