Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:12:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c2b…a814 crypto 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-1%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate62%96W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135
7 days−$268
14 days−$172
30 days−$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -27.5% -34.4% 57% 41% -19.3%
≤30d 155 -11.3% -19.8% 62% 48% -15.0%
≤90d 155 -11.3% -19.8% 62% 48% -15.0%
all 155 -11.3% -19.8% 62% 48% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 48% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 32% -23.1%
15% -34.5% 18% -30.5%
20% -40.9% 14% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses96 / 59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)155 / 155
History coverage18d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 155 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $107 −$104 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $133 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $132 +$30 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $116 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $115 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $131 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $130 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $116 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $37 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $61 −$50 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $49 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$8 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $39 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $121 +$17 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $61 +$11 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $36 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $43 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 502 history records