Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c2a…b7b5 world 461 markets active 4h ago coverage 51d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$231 (+1%) realized +$287 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate69%296W / 132L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day59.7pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$866now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,040
7 days+$657
14 days+$793
30 days−$682
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$1,158
sports 33% −$406
politics 15% −$65
other 12% +$138
weather 5% +$65
crypto 2% −$299
tech 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -14.8% -22.9% 57% 23% +12.5%
≤30d 210 -10.2% -18.8% 60% 22% -16.2%
≤90d 428 +0.9% -8.7% 69% 31% -7.0%
all 428 +0.9% -8.7% 69% 31% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 31% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 23% -15.9%
15% -25.4% 17% -24.0%
20% -32.7% 12% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$25 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$866
Realized+$287
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses296 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions30
Markets (closed)428 / 461
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day59.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 428 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 72¢ 76¢ $263 $278 +$16 (+6%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $122 $78 −$44 (-36%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by August 31? Yes 97¢ 95¢ $69 $67 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 82¢ 82¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 46¢ 51¢ $43 $48 +$5 (+11%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $38 $44 +$6 (+15%)
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? No 86¢ 96¢ $33 $37 +$4 (+12%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 80¢ 94¢ $26 $31 +$5 (+17%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 31¢ 61¢ $15 $29 +$14 (+98%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+9%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 89¢ 93¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 77¢ 49¢ $29 $19 −$11 (-36%)
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI? Yes 60¢ 61¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 62¢ 91¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 48¢ 93¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+94%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-8%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 34¢ 15¢ $17 $8 −$10 (-56%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 66¢ 74¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 38¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 41¢ 14¢ $12 $4 −$8 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,268 +$1,039 +82%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +37%
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? Jun 15 $53 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $155 −$89 -57%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $12 −$4 -32%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $101 +$3 +3%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 15 $45 −$20 -45%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$7 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 +$4 +32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 15 $22 −$16 -70%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $38 +$114 +300%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $6 +$5 +86%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $70 −$36 -51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $68 −$49 -71%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $86 −$67 -78%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $277 −$200 -72%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $12 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -83%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $39 +$9 +24%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND Jun 14 $5 +$6 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 +$11 +50%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -46%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -31%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win o Jun 13 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$7 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $45 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 30h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 33h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 34h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $141 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $832 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 37h
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $866.03 · official $866.04 (match) · 3500 history records