Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:32:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6C 0x6c29…347e sports 185 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$110 (-2%) realized −$110 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate88%161W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$145
14 days−$145
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$128
other 15% −$6
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 -2.1% -11.4% 96% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 160 -2.1% -11.4% 96% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 184 -1.3% -10.7% 88% 4% -12.0%
all 184 -1.3% -10.7% 88% 4% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 4% -12.0%
10% -19.2% 2% -20.4%
15% -27.0% 1% -28.1%
20% -34.2% 1% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses161 / 23
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)184 / 185
History coverage47d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Sri Lanka 99¢ 98¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $44 +$1 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $18 $0 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 23 $72 −$22 -31%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Emerson Jones Jun 23 $22 $0 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey Jun 23 $39 $0 +1%
Targu Mures: Ilia Simakin vs Marko Topo Jun 23 $28 $0 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 23 $28 $0 +1%
Targu Mures: Michele Ribecai vs Niels McDonald Jun 23 $72 +$1 +2%
Targu Mures: Sergey Fomin vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 23 $17 $0 +0%
Plovdiv: Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Plovdiv: Dinko Dinev vs Dali Blanch Jun 23 $28 $0 +1%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 $0 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $36 $0 +1%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 23 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $72 +$1 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $24 $0 +1%
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 23 $24 $0 +1%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 23 $36 $0 +1%
Will AA Ponte Preta vs. Grêmio Novorizontino end in a draw? Jun 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $24 $0 +1%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $36 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $22 $0 +0%
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Nicolas Villalon Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 22 $48 $0 +1%
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Ignacio Monzon Jun 22 $36 $0 +1%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Brazil vs Panama Jun 22 $59 +$1 +1%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 22 $72 +$1 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 22 $58 +$1 +1%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Borna Gojo Jun 22 $12 $0 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Max Houkes Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Hugo Dellien Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Federico Cina Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York Jun 22 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $60 +$1 +1%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $36 $0 +1%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $48 +$1 +2%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Jun 22 $24 $0 +2%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 22 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $34 +$1 +2%
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball Jun 21 $12 $0 +1%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 21 $24 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $36 $0 +1%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 21 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland BUY Sri Lanka 98¢ $11 3m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland BUY Sri Lanka 99¢ $5 3m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland BUY Sri Lanka 99¢ $5 3m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland BUY Sri Lanka 99¢ $11 3m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland BUY Sri Lanka 99¢ $7 3m
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 97¢ $17 54m
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 99¢ $11 56m
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 98¢ $17 56m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Lucia Bronzetti 69¢ $32 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Lucia Bronzetti 67¢ $15 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Lucia Bronzetti 73¢ $4 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 97¢ $17 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 98¢ $17 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 98¢ $6 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 98¢ $5 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 99¢ $5 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 99¢ $5 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 99¢ $11 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 100¢ $7 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Emerson Jones BUY Emerson Jones 99¢ $5 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Emerson Jones BUY Emerson Jones 99¢ $5 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Emerson Jones BUY Emerson Jones 99¢ $5 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Emerson Jones BUY Emerson Jones 99¢ $7 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey BUY Giles Hussey 98¢ $11 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey BUY Giles Hussey 99¢ $11 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey BUY Giles Hussey 100¢ $2 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey BUY Giles Hussey 100¢ $5 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey BUY Giles Hussey 100¢ $5 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey BUY Giles Hussey 100¢ $6 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY New Zealand 98¢ $11 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.51 · official $38.51 (match) · 683 history records