Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:15:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c29…8b39 crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$228
14 days−$111
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$90
weather 11% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -23.1% -30.5% 18% 12% -27.7%
≤30d 38 -13.1% -21.4% 32% 26% -16.3%
≤90d 38 -13.1% -21.4% 32% 26% -16.3%
all 38 -13.1% -21.4% 32% 26% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 26% -16.3%
10% -28.9% 21% -24.3%
15% -35.8% 18% -31.6%
20% -42.1% 16% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$13 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage12d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$24 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $78 +$52 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 15 $82 −$10 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$12 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $15 −$12 -80%
Solana Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $74 −$20 -27%
Solana Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $36 +$2 +5%
XRP Up or Down on June 13? Jun 12 $45 −$9 -19%
XRP Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $34 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $423 −$136 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $68 −$4 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 10? Jun 09 $16 −$13 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $78 −$31 -40%
XRP Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $20 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $83 +$89 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8AM ET Jun 07 $16 −$10 -62%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 8AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $21 +$18 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $74 +$45 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? Jun 05 $52 −$17 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$2 +60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 04 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 04 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 04 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 -30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$4 -71%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $39 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 4? Jun 04 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 +$4 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $25 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $130 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 47¢ $72 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $14 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 50¢ $78 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 50¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 28¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 51¢ $3 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 130 history records