Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:25:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c28…b41c crypto 25 markets active 7d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2 (-3%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate60%15W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day69.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$4
sports 12% $0
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 25 -2.2% -11.5% 60% 52% -14.2%
≤90d 25 -2.2% -11.5% 60% 52% -14.2%
all 25 -2.2% -11.5% 60% 52% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 52% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 40% -22.4%
15% -27.7% 32% -29.9%
20% -34.8% 28% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses15 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day69.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +152%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -85%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 +$2 +134%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $1 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 2¢ $0 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records