Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:00:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6C 0x6c27…f2aa sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$713 (+36%) realized +$786 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$560
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +20.9% +9.3% 67% 67% +25.2%
≤30d 12 +20.9% +9.3% 67% 67% +25.2%
≤90d 12 +20.9% +9.3% 67% 67% +25.2%
all 12 +20.9% +9.3% 67% 67% +25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.3% 67% +25.2%
10% -1.1% 67% +13.2%
15% -10.7% 67% +2.3%
20% -19.4% 58% -7.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$90 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.76 per $1 lost it wins $2.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized+$786
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 52¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 51¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners Over 53¢ 16¢ $100 $29 −$71 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 +$84 +83%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $303 +$145 +48%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 +$98 +96%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 +$72 +71%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $176 +$114 +65%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $304 +$283 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $101 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $101 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $61 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $102 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $102 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $303 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $101 10h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $199 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $174 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $101 29h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 34h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $102 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $290 34h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $588 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $176 36h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 51¢ $304 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.80 · official $228.70 (match) · 23 history records