Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:11:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c27…4db9 weather 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$57 (+3%) realized +$25 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -81% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%3W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$303
14 days−$578
30 days−$1,066
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$1,617
other 2% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-82.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -91.0% -91.9% 0% 0% -93.4%
≤30d 72 -81.4% -83.1% 3% 3% -90.2%
≤90d 104 -80.6% -82.5% 3% 3% -88.7%
all 104 -80.6% -82.5% 3% 3% -88.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -82.5% 3% -88.7%
10% -84.2% 3% -89.8%
15% -85.7% 3% -90.7%
20% -87.1% 3% -91.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -88% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -81% · $-wt -88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -85% → late -77% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses3 / 101
Open positions25
Markets (closed)104 / 97
History coverage49d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 40¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+334%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 38¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+312%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 34¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+274%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 32¢ $2 $6 +$5 (+252%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 32¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+246%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 30¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+230%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 28¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+202%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 26¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+191%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 24¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+164%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+81%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+81%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-59%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-63%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-64%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-90%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C or higher on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -103%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 9? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on June 16? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on June 16? Jun 15 $20 −$10 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C or below on June 14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on June 14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on June 11? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C or below on June 10? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 10? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 9? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 2? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 8? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 8? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 7? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 7? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C or below on June 6? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 +$3 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 5? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 5? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $0 +$1 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $20 −$10 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 3? Jun 02 $20 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 3? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or below on May 31? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 1? May 31 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.09 · official $76.54 (match) · 1358 history records