Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:17:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6C 0x6c26…94ab other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$147 (+6%) realized +$329 · open −$182
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$511
7 days+$311
14 days+$311
30 days+$311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$82
sports 12% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.5% -7.3% 80% 80% +5.3%
≤30d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 71% 71% +5.3%
≤90d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 71% 71% +5.3%
all 7 +0.8% -8.8% 71% 71% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 71% +5.3%
10% -17.6% 43% -4.8%
15% -25.5% 29% -14.0%
20% -32.8% 29% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$100 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$415
Realized+$329
Unrealized−$182
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage25d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $197 $170 −$27 (-14%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 40¢ $200 $135 −$65 (-32%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $110 −$90 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $204 +$29 +14%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$16 +16%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $364 +$207 +57%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,027 +$258 +25%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Dinamo 1948 vs. FCSB end in a draw? May 29 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Dinamo 1948 win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $117 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $102 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 63¢ $118 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 31¢ $117 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 26¢ $102 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1,285 33h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $364 6d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 6d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,027 6d
Will Dinamo 1948 vs. FCSB end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $2 21d
Will Dinamo 1948 win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 21d
Will Dinamo 1948 vs. FCSB end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 21d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 24d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.64 · official $414.64 (match) · 43 history records