Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c25…62a2 world 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%20W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$6
politics 17% −$1
other 14% $0
sports 14% −$13
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.2% -10.6% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -1.7% -11.1% 36% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 58 +0.5% -9.1% 34% 2% -9.8%
all 59 -1.2% -10.6% 34% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -10.4%
10% -19.2% 2% -18.9%
15% -27.0% 2% -26.8%
20% -34.1% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses20 / 39
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage486d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $85 −$3 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $53 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $6 $0 -7%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $95 +$2 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $28 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $14 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $67 +$3 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $92 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $59 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $27 −$3 -11%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $17 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $28 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $27 −$2 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $32 −$5 -15%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $2 +$1 +68%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $63 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $31 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $65 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $98 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $78 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $4 $0 +2%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $63 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $31 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $29 48m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $23 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $4 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $27 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $26 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $26 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $7 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $20 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $0 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $26 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $26 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $16 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $25 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $20 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $6 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $14 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $9 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $23 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 238 history records