Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:24:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6C
0x6c1c…5650
weather · 1827 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$51 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$45 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,398
Realized−$45
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1580 / 131
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions148
Markets (closed)1711 / 1827
History coverage22d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day82.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 148 History 1711 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$212
7 days−$97
14 days−$62
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? No 81¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $900M and $1.1B at market close on IPO day? No 80¢ 98¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 83¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? No 86¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 87¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? No 81¢ 92¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? No 85¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? No 86¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? No 82¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? No 91¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 9? No 93¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? No 90¢ 96¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 13? No 95¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? No 81¢ 85¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 14? No 95¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 900,000 and 1,200,000 voters? No 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? No 95¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? No 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will OGC Nice vs. FC Metz end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on May 18? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 17? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-05-21? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 17? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 17? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 17? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 17? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 17? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-05-20? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 23? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 18? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 23? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 18? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on June 12? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +23%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 ( Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +8%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 52% +$157
other 15% +$14
sports 14% +$74
crypto 12% −$55
politics 3% −$31
world 3% +$17
finance 1% +$4
culture 1% +$3
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 96¢ $5 26m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $10 33m
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 34m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 36m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 36m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 88¢ $10 38m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $10 40m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $10 48m
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) BUY Spurs 91¢ $10 54m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 56m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 59m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $10 2h
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $10 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $10 3h
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $10 3h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 BUY Under 81¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 580 -1.7% -11.0% 91% 28% -11.1%
≤30d 1711 -0.3% -9.8% 92% 31% -9.8%
≤90d 1711 -0.3% -9.8% 92% 31% -9.8%
all 1711 -0.3% -9.8% 92% 31% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover82.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 31% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 3% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,398.46 · official $1,398.47 (match) · 3500 history records