trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | No | 66¢ | 94¢ | $2 | $3 | +$1 (+43%) |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 36¢ | 81¢ | $1 | $2 | +$1 (+127%) |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 18¢ | 6¢ | $5 | $2 | −$3 (-66%) |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | 79¢ | 82¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 29¢ | 12¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-61%) |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 12¢ | $1 | $0 | −$0 (-50%) |
| Will Trump be impeached by June 30? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-94%) |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | No | 27¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $3 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | Jun 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | May 13 | $1 | $0 | +28% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +21% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m | May 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | May 04 | $1 | $0 | +20% |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, | May 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | May 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | May 04 | $1 | $0 | +35% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Apr 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Apr 25 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Australian Open? | Apr 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | Apr 24 | $1 | +$1 | +104% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Apr 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | Mar 12 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Feb 28 | $2 | +$2 | +100% |
| Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? | Feb 02 | $2 | +$3 | +127% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -64.6% | -68.0% | 33% | 0% | -42.7% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -64.6% | -68.0% | 33% | 0% | -42.7% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -49.1% | -53.9% | 38% | 31% | -51.2% |
| all | 19 | -34.7% | -40.9% | 42% | 37% | -32.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -40.9% | 37% | -32.0% |
| 10% | -46.5% | 26% | -38.5% |
| 15% | -51.7% | 16% | -44.5% |
| 20% | -56.4% | 16% | -49.9% |