Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:08:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c16…66ce sports 869 markets active 6d ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (309 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$730 (+1%) realized +$730 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%471W / 401L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day309.0pace
Fees−$559est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$7,148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (309 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -1.4% -10.8% 48% 41% -46.2%
≤30d 872 -6.0% -15.0% 54% 46% -21.2%
≤90d 872 -6.0% -15.0% 54% 46% -21.2%
all 872 -6.0% -15.0% 54% 46% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover309.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 46% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 38% -28.8%
15% -30.5% 28% -35.7%
20% -37.4% 19% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$50 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$730
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses471 / 401
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$559
Open positions0
Markets (closed)872 / 869
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$64
Trades / day309.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 872 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +54%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 17 $3 $0 +6%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 167.5 Jun 11 $3 +$1 +18%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $64 −$64 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 11 $96 −$9 -9%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $244 −$239 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,021 −$2,021 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $187 −$36 -19%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 11 $313 −$281 -90%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 11 $124 +$77 +62%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $87 +$35 +40%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $81 −$3 -3%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $29 +$14 +49%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 11 $121 −$43 -36%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 11 $15 −$1 -7%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $58 −$45 -79%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $339 +$10 +3%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 11 $76 −$76 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 11 $75 −$9 -12%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $105 −$105 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 Jun 11 $27 +$17 +62%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 11 $24 −$22 -89%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 11 $18 −$13 -74%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Jun 11 $83 −$44 -53%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $301 −$301 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 11 $7 +$4 +55%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 11 $16 −$4 -22%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 11 $11 −$2 -18%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $18 +$7 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 Jun 11 $44 +$26 +60%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 11 $59 +$30 +50%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $35 +$69 +197%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $66 +$37 +56%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 11 $6 +$7 +109%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 11 $33 −$33 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 −$3 -49%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 11 $8 +$2 +27%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $90 +$145 +162%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 84¢ $3 6d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 88¢ $6 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 51¢ $6 6d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 72¢ $17 6d
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) BUY Knicks 83¢ $8 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 27¢ $12 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 99¢ $2 6d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Knicks 62¢ $27 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 61¢ $27 6d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 46¢ $13 6d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Knicks 25¢ $7 6d
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) BUY Knicks 82¢ $42 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 BUY Over 62¢ $44 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 47¢ $23 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 39¢ $16 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 32¢ $13 6d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 27¢ $3 6d
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) BUY Knicks 85¢ $237 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 6d
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) BUY Spurs 25¢ $2 6d
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) BUY Knicks 76¢ $22 6d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 43¢ $4 6d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Knicks 32¢ $2 6d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 37¢ $5 6d
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) BUY Knicks 77¢ $2 6d
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) BUY Knicks 57¢ $52 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.48 · official $7.48 (match) · 3500 history records