Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:15:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c15…e41b other 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$309 (+0%) realized +$309 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%6W / 75L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$1,539per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$903now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$26
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$357
politics 39% −$66
economics 5% −$10
world 4% −$6
culture 3% −$5
crypto 2% +$7
finance 1% −$1
sports 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 81 -4.7% -13.8% 7% 4% -9.3%
all 81 -4.7% -13.8% 7% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 4% -9.3%
10% -22.0% 4% -18.0%
15% -29.5% 2% -25.9%
20% -36.4% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,661) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$3 · ×25.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$903
Realized+$309
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses6 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage80d
Avg bet$1,539
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $903 $903 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 16 $2,532 −$4 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,508 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,639 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,666 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,576 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,474 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,576 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,583 −$3 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 11 $1,557 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $3,151 −$4 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $2,587 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,128 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,141 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,666 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,608 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 04 $538 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 04 $792 +$4 +0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $2,042 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,625 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $4,473 −$5 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $1,172 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $2,854 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,477 −$4 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 21 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $52 +$87 +165%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 20 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $31 +$12 +40%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $1,067 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $2,402 −$3 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $1,676 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1,464 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $4,226 −$5 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $1,414 −$2 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 17 $1,610 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 17 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $1,612 −$3 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 16 $1,604 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $1,603 −$2 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $1,559 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $1,357 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $1,347 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $3,031 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $1,365 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $3,067 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $1,368 −$2 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $1,274 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $904 1h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,561 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,563 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,506 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,508 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,636 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,639 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,664 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,666 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,574 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,576 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,473 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,474 9d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,574 9d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,576 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,581 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,583 9d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $1,555 9d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $1,557 10d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,553 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,555 14d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,275 14d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,277 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,126 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,128 16d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,139 16d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,141 16d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,664 16d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,666 16d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,605 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $902.93 · official $902.93 (match) · 228 history records