Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6C 0x6c12…13f6 sports 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$22 (+20%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate73%24W / 9L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$23
other 25% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +20.9% +9.4% 73% 73% +12.6%
≤30d 33 +14.9% +3.9% 73% 67% +10.6%
≤90d 33 +14.9% +3.9% 73% 67% +10.6%
all 33 +14.9% +3.9% 73% 67% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 67% +10.6%
10% -6.0% 58% +0.0%
15% -15.1% 39% -9.6%
20% -23.4% 21% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.78 per $1 lost it wins $2.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses24 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)33 / 38
History coverage22d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Uzbekistan 78¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 30¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Under 80¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 +32%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 $0 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 +$2 +26%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $28 +$12 +42%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +56%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +27%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +48%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $11 +$3 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $2 $0 +14%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $2 $0 +8%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) May 28 $1 +$1 +62%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $2 +$1 +57%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $1 $0 +6%
LoL: New Meta vs DetonatioN FocusMe Academy (BO3) - LJL Regular Season May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1 11h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 30¢ $1 11h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 78¢ $2 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 11h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 75¢ $1 11h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $2 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $1 28h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 83¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $1 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $18 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $2 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 76¢ $6 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $10 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Japan 74¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $5 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 100¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Paraguay 76¢ $1 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $1 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 78¢ $6 5d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) SELL Czechia 100¢ $1 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 40¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.79 · official $12.79 (match) · 69 history records