Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:14:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6C 0x6c10…df5c other 329 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 119d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$67,337 (-23%) realized −$67,516 · open +$179
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate72%163W / 64L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$904per market
Trades / day25.3pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$50,374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,077
7 days+$9,011
14 days−$56,471
30 days−$58,154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$19,730
politics 35% −$68,558
world 13% +$2,866
crypto 6% −$1,472
sports 5% +$189
finance 3% −$956
tech 1% +$447
economics 0% +$26
culture 0% +$33
weather 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +13.3% +2.5% 85% 63% +1.8%
≤30d 96 -6.0% -14.9% 72% 45% -32.9%
≤90d 206 +7.0% -3.2% 72% 51% -27.9%
all 227 +10.1% -0.4% 72% 52% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 52% -27.6%
10% -9.9% 29% -34.5%
15% ← realistic here -18.6% 19% -40.9%
20% -26.6% 14% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$1,261 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$50,374
Realized−$67,516
Unrealized+$179
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses163 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions127
Markets (closed)227 / 329
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$904
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 127 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 81¢ $7,239 $7,120 −$119 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 58¢ $6,211 $5,196 −$1,015 (-16%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $4,238 $4,259 +$20 (+0%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $3,758 $3,987 +$229 (+6%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 80¢ 98¢ $2,487 $3,071 +$584 (+23%)
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? No 82¢ 84¢ $2,911 $2,992 +$80 (+3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 99¢ $1,900 $2,155 +$255 (+13%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 76¢ 99¢ $1,233 $1,604 +$371 (+30%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 41¢ 32¢ $1,970 $1,515 −$455 (-23%)
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? No 89¢ 98¢ $948 $1,046 +$98 (+10%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $1,024 $1,002 −$22 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $880 $915 +$35 (+4%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No 77¢ 86¢ $804 $903 +$99 (+12%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 90¢ 94¢ $808 $849 +$41 (+5%)
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? No 80¢ 88¢ $547 $601 +$53 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $528 $573 +$45 (+9%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $500 $510 +$10 (+2%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $461 $507 +$46 (+10%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? No 87¢ 100¢ $434 $499 +$65 (+15%)
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? No 88¢ 95¢ $463 $499 +$36 (+8%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 99¢ $410 $495 +$85 (+21%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 87¢ 100¢ $372 $426 +$54 (+15%)
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 5.50%? No 90¢ 74¢ $450 $368 −$82 (-18%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 94¢ 96¢ $356 $365 +$8 (+2%)
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? Yes 89¢ 87¢ $356 $348 −$8 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,303 +$121 +9%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $201 +$27 +13%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $323 +$119 +37%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $262 +$96 +37%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,408 +$143 +10%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $31 +$60 +196%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $202 +$126 +62%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $179 +$21 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $601 −$601 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,818 +$281 +10%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,406 +$209 +15%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,901 +$42 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21,943 +$2,631 +12%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $44 +$2 +5%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $145 +$55 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4,360 +$2,465 +57%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $420 +$180 +43%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $122 +$18 +15%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $45 +$55 +122%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $110 +$12 +11%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $8,932 +$903 +10%
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $134 +$20 +15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $613 −$613 -100%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $22,142 +$2,810 +13%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be at least 2.50T? Jun 15 $173 +$27 +16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $201 +$65 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,165 +$83 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $202 −$202 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $908 −$908 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $1,203 +$109 +9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $346 −$346 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $201 +$43 +22%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $173 +$94 +55%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $201 +$71 +35%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7,343 +$935 +13%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$126 +124%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $81 +$25 +31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $505 +$69 +14%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,101 +$50 +5%
Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the f Jun 13 $85 +$15 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $18,433 +$315 +2%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2,201 +$25 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,627 +$683 +42%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $45 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 52m
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 88¢ $201 7h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 50¢ $61 7h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 67¢ $222 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 8h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 88¢ $100 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 91¢ $401 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 91¢ $602 9h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 68¢ $101 10h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 84¢ $201 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $869 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $462 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $120 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $24 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 96¢ $705 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $301 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $402 21h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 23h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $300 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 97¢ $601 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,502 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50,373.74 · official $50,374.62 (match) · 3500 history records