Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:10:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6C 0x6c10…dcb9 other 48 markets active 3d ago coverage 724d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$41 (-4%) realized −$35 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%20W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$11
14 days+$53
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$69
other 38% −$93
sports 9% +$65
economics 4% +$17
world 3% +$36
culture 2% +$14
tech 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +103.7% +84.3% 50% 50% +86.4%
≤30d 5 +55.5% +40.7% 40% 40% -8.0%
≤90d 12 +27.0% +14.9% 33% 33% +2.7%
all 45 +10.8% +0.2% 44% 44% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 44% -12.6%
10% -9.4% 40% -21.0%
15% -18.1% 40% -28.6%
20% -26.1% 33% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$18 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

724d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage724d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 70¢ 42¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 24¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$16 +307%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$42 +207%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 30 $112 −$41 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $75 −$48 -63%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 10 $14 +$28 +198%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $30 +$80 +266%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans Mar 22 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award Mar 21 $6 +$6 +104%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 21 $10 +$7 +74%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 13 $10 +$18 +178%
Will Dominican Republic win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Feb 28 $5 +$6 +113%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $5 −$3 -58%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $5 −$2 -30%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 29 $7 +$4 +52%
Will Indiana win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jan 29 $5 +$7 +142%
Will Miami Florida win the 2026 College Football National Championship Jan 20 $5 −$3 -60%
Miami vs. Indiana Jan 20 $5 −$3 -67%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $5 +$6 +122%
Oregon vs. Indiana Jan 10 $5 +$2 +41%
Miami vs. Ole Miss Jan 10 $5 +$3 +64%
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026? Jan 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Alabama vs. Indiana Jan 02 $10 +$4 +43%
Miami vs. Texas A&M Jan 01 $10 +$13 +127%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 20 $5 +$9 +186%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Nov 05 $28 +$6 +20%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 01 $145 −$127 -88%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April? Jan 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 16 $100 −$61 -61%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $100 −$24 -24%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $50 −$3 -6%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Nov 02 $111 +$142 +127%
Will Roy Cooper be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Jul 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 19d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 24d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 40d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 40d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 69d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 72d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes $2 72d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 14¢ $27 72d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 72d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 72d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 23¢ $21 72d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 72d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 72d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 72d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 72d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 35¢ $16 72d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 73d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 74d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 74d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 74d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 74d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 74d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 74d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 39¢ $22 74d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 77d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.61 · official $13.61 (match) · 104 history records