Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:34:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6C 0x6c0c…0638 weather 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$354 (-11%) realized −$355 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate21%21W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day34.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$153
14 days−$377
30 days−$377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 64% −$116
other 16% −$120
tech 9% −$2
crypto 7% −$131
finance 3% −$5
politics 1% $0
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -29.2% -36.0% 36% 3% -18.0%
≤30d 99 -27.7% -34.6% 21% 2% -20.6%
≤90d 99 -27.7% -34.6% 21% 2% -20.6%
all 99 -27.7% -34.6% 21% 2% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.6% 2% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -40.9% 1% -28.2%
15% -46.6% 0% -35.2%
20% -51.8% 0% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$355
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses21 / 78
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage11d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day34.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? No 7¢ 9¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $62 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -51%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $98 +$9 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $33 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $46 −$44 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $50 −$1 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Jun 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $2 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $46 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $96 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $130 −$5 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $62 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 7¢ $3 3m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 5m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL Yes 90¢ $8 8m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 14m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL Yes 90¢ $22 43m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? BUY Yes 88¢ $22 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL Yes 88¢ $29 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? BUY Yes 89¢ $7 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? BUY Yes 89¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? SELL No 92¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $46 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $46 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $48 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 2¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 2¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.85 · official $3.85 (match) · 415 history records