Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c0c…8a11 crypto 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$247 (+2%) realized +$247 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%89W / 81L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$576
finance 18% +$811
world 7% −$99
politics 6% +$212
sports 3% −$32
tech 1% +$7
other 1% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +5.1% -4.9% 89% 56% -2.0%
≤30d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 80% 50% -18.8%
≤90d 25 -20.7% -28.3% 52% 40% -32.5%
all 170 -0.3% -9.8% 52% 41% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 41% -8.0%
10% -18.4% 31% -16.8%
15% -26.3% 22% -24.8%
20% -33.5% 18% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$43 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$247
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses89 / 81
Open positions0
Markets (closed)170 / 170
History coverage156d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 170 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $48 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $92 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +41%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $200 −$97 -49%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 6AM ET Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 5PM ET Mar 22 $182 −$182 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 7AM ET Mar 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7AM ET Mar 21 $65 −$29 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3AM ET Mar 21 $75 −$49 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6PM ET Mar 20 $130 −$7 -6%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 5PM ET Mar 20 $100 +$21 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 3PM ET Mar 20 $100 +$30 +30%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 3PM ET Mar 20 $200 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3PM ET Mar 20 $75 −$47 -63%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 9AM ET Mar 20 $51 −$46 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9AM ET Mar 20 $50 −$48 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 1AM ET Mar 20 $65 +$54 +82%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 9AM ET Mar 20 $75 −$34 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7AM ET Mar 20 $101 +$49 +49%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 19? Mar 19 $150 −$32 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 2AM ET Mar 19 $50 −$37 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2AM ET Mar 19 $50 −$41 -82%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 17? Mar 18 $188 −$77 -41%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 17? Mar 17 $50 +$44 +88%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 16? Mar 17 $150 −$15 -10%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 5PM ET Mar 12 $50 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5PM ET Mar 12 $50 −$2 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 10? Mar 10 $50 +$72 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2AM ET Mar 10 $50 +$51 +101%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 2AM ET Mar 10 $50 −$19 -37%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 6? Mar 10 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 3, 12PM ET Mar 03 $50 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12PM ET Mar 03 $50 −$23 -47%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 5AM ET Mar 03 $50 −$40 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5AM ET Mar 03 $50 +$31 +63%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 3? Mar 03 $50 +$31 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5PM ET Mar 03 $50 −$50 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 5PM ET Mar 02 $50 +$39 +78%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2? Mar 02 $100 +$185 +185%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 6AM ET Mar 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6AM ET Mar 02 $100 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5AM ET Mar 01 $100 −$60 -60%
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 5AM ET Mar 01 $30 −$27 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 5AM ET Mar 01 $50 −$7 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $48 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $69 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? SELL Down 18¢ $103 14d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? BUY Down 32¢ $200 14d
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 6AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $100 86d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 5PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $182 87d
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 7AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $100 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $36 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $65 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $26 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $75 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $123 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $80 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $50 88d
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 5PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $121 88d
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 5PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $100 88d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 3PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $109 88d
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 3PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $176 88d
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 3PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $100 88d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 3PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $50 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 506 history records