Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:20:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

6C 0x6c0a…8461 sports 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 176d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$771 (-28%) realized −$1,328 · open +$557

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip

Net edge-71%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate17%4W / 20L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$93per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$26est.

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$1,505now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$829

7 days−$792

14 days−$792

30 days−$792

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-70.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-71.3%	-74.1%	13%	13%	-50.0%
≤30d	23	-71.3%	-74.1%	13%	13%	-50.0%
≤90d	23	-71.3%	-74.1%	13%	13%	-50.0%
all	24	-67.8%	-70.9%	17%	17%	-48.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-70.9%	17%	-48.4%
10%	-73.7%	12%	-53.4%
15%	-76.2%	12%	-57.9%
20%	-78.5%	12%	-62.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -68% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -36% → late -100% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$124 vs −$64 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.39 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage

Net worth$1,505

Realized−$1,328

Unrealized+$557

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses4 / 20

Est. fees paid−$26

Open positions6

Markets (closed)24 / 30

History coverage176d

Avg bet$93

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	Yes	42¢	100¢	$178	$425	+$247 (+138%)
Portugal leading at halftime?	No	45¢	100¢	$188	$418	+$229 (+122%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	DR Congo	49¢	76¢	$210	$324	+$114 (+54%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	No	24¢	40¢	$102	$168	+$66 (+65%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Under	46¢	24¢	$197	$101	−$96 (-49%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$72	$70	−$2 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?	Jun 17	$3	−$3	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$7	−$7	-100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$11	−$11	-100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$9	−$9	-100%
Argentina leading at halftime?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime?	Jun 17	$13	−$13	-100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao?	Jun 17	$3	−$3	-100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$40	−$40	-100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	Jun 17	$41	−$41	-100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 17	$40	−$40	-100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$36	−$36	-100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$40	−$40	-100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 17	$40	−$40	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 17	$41	−$41	-100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February?	Jun 17	$61	−$61	-100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?	Jun 17	$106	−$106	-100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$153	−$153	-100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$259	−$238	-92%
France leading at halftime?	Jun 16	$213	+$199	+93%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$175	+$254	+145%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$207	−$185	-90%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$228	−$207	-91%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$40	+$37	+93%
US government shutdown Saturday?	Jan 31	$53	+$7	+13%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$74	7m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	46¢	$191	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	42¢	$173	1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY DR Congo	49¢	$203	1h
Portugal leading at halftime?	BUY No	45¢	$182	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	24¢	$99	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	41¢	$8	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	46¢	$10	1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY DR Congo	49¢	$10	1h
Portugal leading at halftime?	BUY No	46¢	$10	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	24¢	$5	3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Algeria	59¢	$250	23h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	49¢	$217	23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	47¢	$194	23h
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	40¢	$166	23h
France leading at halftime?	BUY No	51¢	$213	23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	35¢	$146	23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	44¢	$9	25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	51¢	$11	25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	42¢	$9	25h
Argentina leading at halftime?	BUY No	50¢	$10	25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	32¢	$7	25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$11	25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	56¢	$12	25h
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	41¢	$9	25h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime?	BUY No	63¢	$13	25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	33¢	$7	26h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5	BUY Under	40¢	$36	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$40	3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	42¢	$40	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,505.38 · official $1,496.84 (match) · 67 history records