Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6C 0x6c0a…c1d9 crypto 427 markets active 0h ago coverage 170d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 170d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,152 (-27%) realized −$12,154 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%180W / 412L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$261est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 170d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$3,666
sports 30% +$773
other 2% +$228
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-49.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 -70.1% -73.0% 3% 3% -94.9%
≤30d 214 -62.7% -66.3% 8% 7% -87.0%
≤90d 322 -45.3% -50.5% 20% 18% -53.5%
all 592 -43.9% -49.3% 30% 30% -52.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.3% 30% -52.9%
10% -54.1% 29% -57.4%
15% -58.6% 11% -61.6%
20% -62.6% 8% -65.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -41% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$120 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$12,154
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses180 / 412
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$261
Open positions2
Markets (closed)592 / 427
History coverage170d ⚠
Avg bet$106
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 592 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 31¢ 32¢ $208 $211 +$3 (+2%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 361 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $216 −$216 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $337 −$337 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $752 −$752 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $173 −$173 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on December 31? Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $196 −$196 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 29? Jun 27 $2,330 −$2,330 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $178 −$178 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 30? Jun 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 1? Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $133 −$133 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? Jun 27 $0 +$141 +423790%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $223 −$223 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $177 −$177 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $134 −$134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $338 −$338 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 31? Jun 27 $233 −$233 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 31? Jun 27 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $1,768 −$1,768 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $174 −$174 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $625 −$1,100 -176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 31? Jun 27 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $357 −$357 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on December 30? Jun 27 $179 −$179 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $133 −$133 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $60 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $113 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $138 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $127 19m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $212 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $56 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $56 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $21 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $16 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $65 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $73 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $295 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $89 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $93 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $350 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $170 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $163 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $76 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $13 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $71 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $121 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.69 · official $211.69 (match) · 3500 history records