Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:27:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6C 0x6c0a…aee2 other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$83 (+8%) realized +$150 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$404
7 days+$384
14 days+$461
30 days+$461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$279
crypto 26% +$114
sports 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +1.7% -8.0% 27% 27% +78.6%
≤30d 16 +6.4% -3.7% 31% 31% +74.9%
≤90d 16 +6.4% -3.7% 31% 31% +74.9%
all 16 +6.4% -3.7% 31% 31% +74.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 31% +74.9%
10% -12.9% 31% +58.2%
15% -21.3% 31% +42.9%
20% -29.0% 25% +28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +93% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$13 · ×9.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.25 per $1 lost it wins $4.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$434
Realized+$150
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage107d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $306 $403 +$97 (+32%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Morocco 42¢ 50¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+20%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Morocco? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 30 $51 +$261 +509%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 30 $51 +$22 +42%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $22 −$21 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $82 −$13 -16%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 +$231 +226%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $12 −$1 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $100 +$77 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 100¢ $312 5m
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 55m
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 59m
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? SELL Yes 18¢ $73 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 42¢ $25 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 8¢ $61 6h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 6h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 7h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 7h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 7h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 7h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 5d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 5d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $434.31 · official $433.71 (match) · 145 history records