Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6C 0x6c07…3d52 crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +17.7% +6.5% 52% 52% -4.7%
≤30d 27 +17.7% +6.5% 52% 52% -4.7%
≤90d 27 +17.7% +6.5% 52% 52% -4.7%
all 27 +17.7% +6.5% 52% 52% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.5% 52% -4.7%
10% -3.7% 41% -13.8%
15% -13.0% 33% -22.1%
20% -21.6% 33% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$26 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage6d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $167 +$56 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $74 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $79 +$24 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$12 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $105 +$102 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $74 +$48 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $73 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $95 −$90 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $78 −$74 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $159 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$53 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $55 +$82 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$6 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $50 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $31 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $29 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $31 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $82 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $53 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $62 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $52 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records