Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c04…9f30 politics 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,621 (-1%) realized −$1,621 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate20%24W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,069per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$676now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$15
14 days−$19
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$63
other 40% −$55
sports 13% −$1,514
world 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
finance 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 62 -19.4% -27.1% 8% 0% -12.4%
all 123 -1.7% -11.1% 20% 8% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 8% -10.7%
10% -19.6% 8% -19.2%
15% -27.3% 8% -27.0%
20% -34.5% 7% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,388) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$22 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$676
Realized−$1,621
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses24 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage138d
Avg bet$1,069
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $676 $676 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,630 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $2,160 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $819 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $529 +$1 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,487 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $837 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,703 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $2,086 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $786 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $418 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,756 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $788 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 07 $1,455 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $3,491 −$4 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $3,936 −$4 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $873 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 01 $261 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 01 $331 +$1 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $567 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,431 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $4,076 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,320 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $2,451 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,299 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,373 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,702 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,344 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $1,394 −$1 -0%
76ers vs. Rockets Apr 13 $1,464 −$1,464 -100%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $1,129 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $760 28m
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $761 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $811 5h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $813 7h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $647 24h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $648 27h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $818 28h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $819 30h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $676 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $869 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $871 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $551 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $551 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $874 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $875 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $868 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $869 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $815 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $816 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $836 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $837 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $888 12d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $890 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $771 13d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $772 13d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $855 15d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $857 15d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $735 16d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $737 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $786 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $676.10 · official $676.10 (match) · 367 history records