Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6C 0x6c03…5fa4 crypto 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$71 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate33%18W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day77.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$71
14 days−$71
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$98
other 3% −$29
sports 3% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -10.7% -19.2% 33% 26% -11.8%
≤30d 54 -10.7% -19.2% 33% 26% -11.8%
≤90d 54 -10.7% -19.2% 33% 26% -11.8%
all 54 -10.7% -19.2% 33% 26% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 26% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 24% -20.3%
15% -34.0% 20% -28.0%
20% -40.4% 15% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses18 / 36
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)54 / 67
History coverage5d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day77.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-46%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 74¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+60%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 6¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-79%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 June 8-14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 8-14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 14? No 0¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $95 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $292 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $128 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $80 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +9%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $123 −$56 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $180 −$9 -5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $235 −$18 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $230 −$19 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $311 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $440 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $91 −$18 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $75 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $98 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $58 +$55 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $57 −$2 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$17 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 +$37 +596%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +66%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$13 +216%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $37 −$35 -95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$19 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +42%
Will the price of Solana be above $10 on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $49 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $15 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.11 · official $51.12 (match) · 455 history records