Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:22:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bff…8124 weather 472 markets active 3h ago coverage 15d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$167 (-15%) realized −$132 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%118W / 293L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day67.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$244
7 days−$233
14 days−$163
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% −$138
crypto 49% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 267 -34.9% -41.1% 16% 15% -51.5%
≤30d 411 -13.0% -21.2% 29% 27% -26.3%
≤90d 411 -13.0% -21.2% 29% 27% -26.3%
all 411 -13.0% -21.2% 29% 27% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 27% -26.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 24% -33.4%
15% -35.7% 20% -39.8%
20% -42.0% 17% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$132
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses118 / 293
Open positions61
Markets (closed)411 / 472
History coverage15d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day67.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 61 History 411 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+178%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 16? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+103%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 17¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+342%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Yes 27¢ 29¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 16? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 17? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-52%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or higher on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 16? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +336%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 15 $1 +$1 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +201%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $2 +$2 +95%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +366%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 6? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 6? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 7? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 9? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 9h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun SELL Yes 30¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY No 22¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.48 · official $25.49 (match) · 1221 history records