Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bff…43ad world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$1
other 21% $0
tech 6% $0
politics 4% $0
sports 3% −$1
weather 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.0% -8.6% 67% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 16 +0.3% -9.2% 25% 6% -9.9%
≤90d 16 +0.3% -9.2% 25% 6% -9.9%
all 45 -2.6% -11.9% 40% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 4% -9.5%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage452d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $31 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $28 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $3 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $59 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $30 −$1 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $33 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $60 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $2 $0 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $31 −$1 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $31 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +13%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $4 $0 -6%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 24 $5 $0 +9%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 29 $5 $0 +3%
Will Kwon Yeong-guk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential ele May 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 25 $5 $0 +6%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 21 $21 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 17 $24 +$3 +12%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 10 $23 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 06 $24 $0 -1%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 01 $24 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Apr 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 31 $23 $0 +0%
Will Zach Edey win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 31 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or below on March 30? Mar 31 $21 +$1 +2%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before April? Mar 31 $1 $0 -52%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 30 $1 $0 +0%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Mar 29 $47 $0 -0%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Mar 29 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 88¢ $29 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 88¢ $8 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 88¢ $21 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 59¢ $32 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 58¢ $31 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $22 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $6 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $28 16h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $28 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $4 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $10 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $14 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $21 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $28 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $28 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 60¢ $5 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 60¢ $4 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 60¢ $20 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 63¢ $30 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $29 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $29 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records