Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:35:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6B 0x6bfd…63bf sports 257 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$42 (-2%) realized −$53 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%115W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$156
7 days−$24
14 days+$41
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$112
other 5% −$124
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 +0.2% -9.3% 46% 44% -10.8%
≤30d 245 +4.7% -5.3% 47% 46% -11.0%
≤90d 245 +4.7% -5.3% 47% 46% -11.0%
all 245 +4.7% -5.3% 47% 46% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 46% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 42% -19.5%
15% -22.6% 40% -27.3%
20% -30.2% 36% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses115 / 130
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions12
Markets (closed)245 / 257
History coverage28d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Felix Gill 56¢ 66¢ $29 $34 +$5 (+17%)
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Pedro Boscardin Dias 26¢ 36¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Bernard Tomic 75¢ 92¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Dane Sweeny 29¢ 32¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Ann Li 47¢ 50¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Elias Ymer 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Tauste: Juliana Giaccio vs Didi Bredberg Canizares Juliana Giaccio 29¢ 25¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta Max Alcala Gurri 61¢ 98¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Alvaro Guillen Meza 29¢ 43¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Marco Cecchinato 41¢ 26¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Maks Kasnikowski 74¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Panna Udvardy 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $10 +$6 +59%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez Jun 16 $13 +$3 +22%
ITF Tauste: Yushan Shao vs Marine Szostak Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 16 $0 $0 +50%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 16 $7 −$3 -38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $8 +$3 +42%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$19 -98%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $20 −$19 -98%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus Jun 15 $19 −$18 -98%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $20 −$19 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $15 +$16 +104%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Sussex Sharks vs Gloucestershire Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $20 +$13 +65%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $20 +$27 +134%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $20 +$15 +73%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Ivory Coast vs Mali Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maya Joint vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Centurion: Luca Castelnuovo vs Semen Pankin Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Hampshire Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Rafael Jodar Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Emilio Nava vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Ivory Coast vs Botswa Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Kosice: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Martin Krumich Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $20 +$75 +365%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $20 −$19 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $20 +$16 +79%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Zongyu Li Jun 14 $20 −$19 -98%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Dane Sweeny 29¢ $10 4m
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang SELL Madison Keys 100¢ $16 4m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 47¢ $10 12m
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Bernard Tomic 75¢ $10 12m
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans SELL Hynek Barton 100¢ $18 13m
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 66¢ $10 32m
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Marco Cecchinato 41¢ $10 37m
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez SELL Elena Milovanovic 100¢ $16 41m
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle BUY Elias Ymer 24¢ $10 43m
ITF Tauste: Juliana Giaccio vs Didi Bredberg Canizares BUY Juliana Giaccio 29¢ $9 46m
ITF Tauste: Juliana Giaccio vs Didi Bredberg Canizares BUY Juliana Giaccio 29¢ $1 46m
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski BUY Pedro Boscardin Dias 26¢ $10 48m
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Hynek Barton 55¢ $10 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Madison Keys 62¢ $10 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $5 1h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta BUY Max Alcala Gurri 61¢ $5 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 29¢ $2 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 29¢ $3 1h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez BUY Elena Milovanovic 84¢ $5 2h
ITF Tauste: Yushan Shao vs Marine Szostak BUY Yushan Shao 58¢ $5 2h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez BUY Elena Milovanovic 80¢ $4 2h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez BUY Elena Milovanovic 80¢ $4 2h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino BUY Maks Kasnikowski 74¢ $4 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.29 · official $129.29 (match) · 687 history records