Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bfc…26ae weather 779 markets active 13h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,261 (-50%) realized −$1,261 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate31%237W / 540L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 40% −$33
politics 24% −$21
other 20% −$28
world 10% +$63
sports 3% −$75
finance 1% −$8
culture 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -58.5% -62.4% 14% 4% -13.2%
≤30d 49 -58.5% -62.4% 14% 4% -13.2%
≤90d 777 -6.5% -15.4% 31% 24% -14.9%
all 777 -6.5% -15.4% 31% 24% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 24% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 21% -23.0%
15% -30.9% 18% -30.4%
20% -37.7% 14% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,261
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses237 / 540
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)777 / 779
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 777 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 17 $126 +$3 +2%
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 17 $62 +$3 +5%
Will Nomar Garciaparra be the next Red Sox manager? Jun 17 $0 $0 -22%
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $17 −$1 -4%
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on April 28? Jun 17 $0 $0 +191%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 17 $0 $0 -2%
Fed Rate Hike by April 2026 Meeting? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on April 30? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $690 on April 29? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by 40% or more? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Orin Larson win Bareback Riding at the 2026 American Rodeo West R Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in April? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify lis Jun 17 $18 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Zero" during astronaut greeting? Jun 17 $0 $0 -9%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on April 29? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 28? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 30? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 29? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Apr Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on April 30? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of April 27 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 1? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a team win every pistol round they play at BLAST Rivals Fort Wort Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C or higher on April Jun 17 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 30? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -47%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on April 29? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $100 in April? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 -69%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on April 30? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on April 30? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $700 on April 29? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29? Jun 17 $0 $0 -91%
Will O'Higgins FC vs. CA Boston River end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-28? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club end in a draw? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -31%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $31 +$45 +146%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $148 $0 -0%
Nick Fuentes arrested by June 30? Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $16 −$2 -14%
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $68 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of April 27 2026? May 01 $0 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 12h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes $0 12h
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? SELL Yes $0 12h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Will P BUY 40¢ $20 13h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $0 13h
Will Robert Lulgjuraj be the Republican Nominee for MI-10? SELL Yes $0 13h
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 13h
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 96¢ $0 13h
Will Nomar Garciaparra be the next Red Sox manager? SELL Yes $0 13h
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 13h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $0 13h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 90¢ $0 13h
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $16 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 40¢ $31 27h
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $17 31h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $1 36h
Nick Fuentes arrested by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $15 36h
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $14 36h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $3 2d
Nick Fuentes arrested by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $14 2d
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 95¢ $48 3d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 93¢ $46 3d
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 90¢ $30 3d
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 90¢ $35 3d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 93¢ $46 4d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 95¢ $48 4d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 4d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 3500 history records