Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:29:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bfa…00d2 sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$308 (-9%) realized −$308 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate67%26W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$411
7 days−$411
14 days−$411
30 days−$410
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$149
world 20% +$7
other 19% −$433
crypto 2% +$2
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.7% -12.9% 75% 25% -65.4%
≤30d 9 -14.2% -22.4% 67% 33% -54.5%
≤90d 30 -17.1% -25.0% 60% 40% -20.1%
all 39 -15.2% -23.3% 67% 31% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 31% -17.7%
10% -30.6% 18% -25.6%
15% -37.3% 8% -32.8%
20% -43.5% 3% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$43 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$308
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses26 / 13
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage145d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $610 −$415 -68%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands May 31 $86 +$25 +29%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $31 −$30 -99%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh May 30 $20 +$10 +49%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $36 −$6 -17%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Apr 18 $16 −$10 -60%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 17 $76 +$5 +6%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 16 $39 +$6 +15%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 13 $20 −$20 -97%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 12 $56 +$8 +15%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Gujarat Titans Apr 12 $11 +$3 +23%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Capitals Apr 11 $87 +$13 +15%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 11 $25 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 09 $68 −$29 -43%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 08 $301 −$7 -2%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 07 $312 +$52 +17%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Punjab Kings Apr 06 $15 −$4 -24%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki Apr 05 $66 +$16 +24%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 05 $4 −$4 -98%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Delhi Capitals Apr 05 $32 −$4 -12%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings Apr 05 $88 −$12 -14%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 04 $218 +$58 +27%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 03 $5 $0 +3%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 02 $57 +$40 +70%
ODI Series New Zealand vs South Africa Women: New Zealand vs South Afr Apr 01 $7 −$2 -28%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans Mar 31 $189 +$36 +19%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 26 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 26 $53 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 26 $171 +$1 +1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Jan 26 $201 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Jan 26 $178 +$2 +1%
International T20 Series: India vs New Zealand (Game 3) Jan 25 $39 +$3 +7%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? Jan 25 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Jan 24 $30 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 27¢ $195 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $234 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $376 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 25h
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Netherlands 100¢ $111 17d
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 96¢ $39 17d
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 68¢ $39 17d
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 57¢ $8 17d
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India BUY India 45¢ $1 18d
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India BUY India 49¢ $1 18d
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India BUY India 65¢ $10 18d
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India BUY India 59¢ $10 18d
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India BUY India 55¢ $3 18d
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India BUY India 48¢ $5 18d
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh SELL Scotland 81¢ $30 18d
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh BUY Scotland 53¢ $20 18d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 18¢ $6 19d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 59¢ $36 19d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 38¢ $3 19d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 46¢ $1 19d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 48¢ $5 19d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 50¢ $20 19d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 96¢ $20 21d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 88¢ $18 21d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore 43¢ $6 60d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals SELL Royal Challengers Bangalore 43¢ $6 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 248 history records