Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bf7…e64c sports 349 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,413 (-15%) realized −$10,403 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%99W / 246L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$1,196est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days−$114
14 days−$301
30 days−$848
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$12,139
other 1% +$325
crypto 0% −$251
world 0% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -14.1% -22.3% 33% 33% -17.9%
≤30d 50 -0.6% -10.1% 26% 26% -21.8%
≤90d 345 -21.6% -29.0% 29% 28% -27.4%
all 345 -21.6% -29.0% 29% 28% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 28% -27.4%
10% -35.8% 26% -34.4%
15% -42.0% 23% -40.7%
20% -47.7% 20% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$250 vs −$150 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized−$10,403
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses99 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1,196
Open positions4
Markets (closed)345 / 349
History coverage78d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $97 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $97 $93 −$4 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $96 $92 −$4 (-4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 235 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $100 +$287 +287%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 −$97 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 −$97 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $100 +$143 +143%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $20 −$19 -96%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $189 −$185 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $100 −$97 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $200 −$194 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $344 +$145 +42%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $120 −$116 -96%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $120 −$116 -97%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $100 −$97 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $50 +$486 +971%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $51 −$50 -97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $130 −$130 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $120 −$116 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $50 −$48 -96%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $15 −$14 -96%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $485 −$473 -98%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 28 $151 −$146 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $200 −$194 -97%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $200 +$102 +51%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $133 −$129 -97%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Gr May 27 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 26 $25 −$24 -95%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $100 +$100 +100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch May 25 $100 −$97 -97%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $40 +$311 +777%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $100 +$303 +303%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $100 −$97 -97%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $60 −$58 -96%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $100 −$97 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $100 +$361 +361%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $100 +$468 +468%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 23 $100 −$97 -97%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $100 −$97 -96%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $100 −$97 -97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $300 +$184 +61%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $200 −$193 -97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 21 $100 −$97 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $100 −$97 -97%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q May 21 $450 −$394 -88%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $500 +$457 +91%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - May 21 $50 −$49 -97%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Chal May 21 $50 −$48 -96%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $50 −$48 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $100 −$96 -96%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challenge May 19 $50 −$49 -97%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $100 −$98 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor May 19 $50 −$48 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $100 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $100 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 36h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 7¢ $20 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 40¢ $100 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 64¢ $189 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 29¢ $100 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 35¢ $200 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $344 5d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B BUY Bilibili Gaming Junior 2¢ $20 8d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B BUY Bilibili Gaming Junior 6¢ $100 8d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 7¢ $20 9d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 23¢ $100 9d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 27¢ $100 9d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 9¢ $50 10d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 22¢ $32 10d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 22¢ $19 10d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 12¢ $30 11d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY HANJIN BRION 3¢ $20 11d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 24¢ $100 11d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY HANJIN BRION 20¢ $100 11d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 10¢ $50 12d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY EDward Gaming 7¢ $15 14d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 29¢ $200 15d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 66¢ $285 15d
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - LFL Playoffs BUY TLN Pirates 9¢ $49 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.47 · official $298.47 (match) · 627 history records