Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6B 0x6bf6…d1b3 sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,532 (+33%) realized +$1,328 · open +$204
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$394now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$473
7 days+$1,152
14 days+$1,491
30 days+$1,491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,695
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +13.9% +3.1% 44% 44% +17.0%
≤30d 26 +16.3% +5.3% 46% 46% +21.4%
≤90d 26 +16.3% +5.3% 46% 46% +21.4%
all 26 +16.3% +5.3% 46% 46% +21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.3% 46% +21.4%
10% -4.8% 46% +9.8%
15% -14.0% 46% -0.8%
20% -22.4% 46% -10.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$290 vs −$142 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$394
Realized+$1,328
Unrealized+$204
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage7d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 85¢ $190 $394 +$204 (+107%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $204 +$485 +237%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $183 −$179 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $97 −$95 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $154 −$151 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $110 +$141 +129%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $200 −$197 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $195 +$353 +181%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $183 +$208 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $207 −$202 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $99 +$109 +110%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $395 +$353 +89%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $161 −$157 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $184 +$373 +203%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $183 −$180 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $215 −$211 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $45 −$44 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $110 −$108 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $208 +$596 +287%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $98 +$110 +112%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $57 +$44 +78%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $183 +$372 +203%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $110 −$108 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $35 −$34 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $266 −$228 -85%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $444 +$340 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $193 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $690 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $204 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $183 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 25¢ $97 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $154 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $110 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $200 40h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $548 40h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $195 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $391 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $183 44h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $207 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $99 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $748 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $395 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 22¢ $161 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $556 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $184 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $183 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $215 3d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 12¢ $45 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $110 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $804 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 25¢ $208 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $208 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $98 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $101 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $57 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $393.90 · official $271.10 · 44 history records