Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

6B 0x6bf4…b7a7 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,037 (+11%) realized +$909 · open +$128

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR22%break-even

Win rate33%6W / 12L

Drawdown37%max

Avg bet$438per market

Trades / day29.2pace

Fees−$106est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$341now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)-14.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-5.4%	-14.4%	33%	22%	-1.1%
≤30d	18	-5.4%	-14.4%	33%	22%	-1.1%
≤90d	18	-5.4%	-14.4%	33%	22%	-1.1%
all	18	-5.4%	-14.4%	33%	22%	-1.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover29.2 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-14.4%	22%	-1.1%
10%	-22.6%	17%	-10.6%
15% ← realistic here	-30.1%	6%	-19.2%
20%	-36.9%	6%	-27.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 84% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +16% → late -26% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$268 vs −$63 · ×4.27 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$341

Realized+$909

Unrealized+$128

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses6 / 12

Est. fees paid−$106

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 22

History coverage3d

Avg bet$438

Trades / day29.2

Drawdown37%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	37¢	77¢	$113	$234	+$121 (+107%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar?	Yes	21¢	22¢	$100	$107	+$7 (+7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	Jun 24	$102	−$31	-30%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 24	$1,003	−$38	-4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$102	−$20	-19%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U	Jun 24	$103	−$103	-100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U	Jun 24	$307	−$307	-100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0	Jun 24	$1,176	+$407	+35%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$317	−$28	-9%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$302	−$17	-6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$276	−$14	-5%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$273	−$30	-11%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 24	$101	−$45	-44%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 24	$2	+$1	+31%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$505	+$10	+2%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$380	+$947	+249%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$492	−$113	-23%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$2	$0	+16%
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Jun 23	$11	−$10	-86%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 21	$3,758	+$245	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	SELL Yes	24¢	$71	33m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	SELL No	86¢	$965	54m
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar?	BUY Yes	21¢	$102	55m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY No	89¢	$1,003	57m
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? AND Exact Score: Switzerland	BUY	26¢	$102	58m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	27¢	$83	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	37¢	$115	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	32¢	$102	1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$102	1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U	SELL	0¢	$0	19h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U	SELL	0¢	$0	19h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0	SELL	99¢	$1,584	19h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0	BUY	73¢	$1,176	20h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$288	20h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	15¢	$285	20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	11¢	$263	20h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$243	20h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	12¢	$56	20h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	SELL No	66¢	$3	20h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U	BUY	26¢	$307	20h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Panama vs. Croatia en	BUY	11¢	$103	21h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$54	21h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$16	21h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$27	21h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$3	21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	68¢	$123	21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	68¢	$5	21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	68¢	$50	21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	68¢	$25	21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	68¢	$100	21h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $341.24 · official $441.24 · 96 history records