Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:21:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6B 0x6bf2…8336 other 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,796 (-2%) realized −$1,796 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate17%23W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$882per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$944now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$20
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$168
politics 38% −$54
sports 7% −$1,643
economics 4% +$3
world 2% +$51
crypto 1% +$3
culture 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 69 -1.9% -11.2% 3% 0% -10.8%
all 133 -6.8% -15.7% 17% 9% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 9% -10.9%
10% -23.8% 9% -19.4%
15% -31.1% 6% -27.2%
20% -37.9% 5% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,167) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$21 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$944
Realized−$1,796
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses23 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)133 / 135
History coverage156d
Avg bet$882
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $725 $725 +$0 (+0%)
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $219 $218 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $303 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,165 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,058 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $3,112 −$4 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $2,516 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,167 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $611 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $4,436 −$5 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $489 +$3 +1%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,054 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,278 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $2,303 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,317 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,164 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $3,104 −$4 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,385 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $463 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 04 $875 +$4 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $409 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $365 $0 +0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,146 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $2,783 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $2,010 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $2,521 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,267 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,281 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $2,371 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,071 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,338 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $2,168 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,284 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,982 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,215 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $970 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,053 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $2,671 −$3 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,252 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $563 −$1 -0%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 10 $1,195 −$1,195 -100%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 05 $35 −$9 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $219 1h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $369 1h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $369 2h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $303 3h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $303 6h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $545 23h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $546 24h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $725 30h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,163 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,165 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,056 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,058 5d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,155 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,157 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $965 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $967 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,257 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,259 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,165 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,167 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,036 11d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,038 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $610 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $611 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,046 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,048 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $809 16d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $810 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,188 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,190 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $943.80 · official $943.80 (match) · 396 history records